Well, you know what they say about the size of a man's shoes...or lack of height! In many ways, Dubya exhibits several traits of the "little man syndrome." Overly aggressive, cowardly and disrespectful when confronted with differing opinions, etc. So, I wouldn't be surprised if Dubya tried to appear taller next to Kerry. A confidant person would never try to do that.

Historically, the taller man always wins. Including in 2000. Where "wins" means "gets more votes."

I don't know what it is with people and height. It really has no practical appeal at this juncture in history, but hey! Vestigal instincts stick around for a while no matter how much evolution you put them through. This might have something to do with fear of spiders and snakes, too...

If I remember correctly, Al Gore and George W. Bush are the exact same height—six foot one—which makes them one inch shorter than me, which means that since I just turned 35 last month, I could have beaten Bush this year, if I’d chosen to run. However, John Kerry is what, six foot four and taller with the hair? He’s bound to beat Bush. I wonder how many more electoral votes you get per inch? I think Bill Bradley is something like six foot six or six-seven, so I guess the height rule doesn’t apply during the primaries.

There are lots of these little “predictors” for presidential elections. I ran across an interview with a financial analyst yesterday who said that he’s got a formula that says that if the Dow Jones average is below 10,290 by Election Day, Bush will lose. If it’s over that, Bush will win. He said it worked for 24 of the past 26 presidential elections. (For the record, the Dow is at 9874 at this writing.)

These rules are made to be broken, of course. No Republican has ever been elected without winning Ohio, and George W. Bush couldn’t have become president without winning it, either. No Republican has ever been elected without winning California (though those who feel George W. Bush was actually elected will take issue with that statement!) People used to point to Maine as the bellwether of the United States. The protopundits of the 1920s would say, “As Maine goes, so goes the nation.” This bore out until 1932, when Maine was one of the few states to go for Hoover, who was crushed in a landslide. In 1936, only two states voted for Franklin Roosevelt’s opponent Alf Landon. A friend of mine once quipped about that election, “As Maine went, so went Vermont.”

It’s also true that no president who has lost the popular vote has ever gotten a second term. I wouldn’t say this really constitutes a pattern, though; only two of the four presidents who have lost the popular vote have sought a second term before—John Quincy Adams in 1828 and Benjamin Harrison in 1892. It makes sense that it’s hard to get a second term if you squeaked into office after an extremely close election: a candidate whose election was that close probably isn’t that strong a candidate to begin with. Had Al Gore been awarded the winner in the 2000 Florida verdict, he’d be in an awkward position right now, having had such a weak mandate from the voters (not to mention a hostile, uncoöperative Congress, but that’s another discussion.) Gore would probably be a one-termer, too—unless the Republicans nominated John McCain, who stands a mere five foot seven!

If you'll pardon a little gratuitous self-promotion, I've made a web site with my predictions for today's election:

http://www.geocities.com/nuclearfurniture/election2004.html

The map is how I feel the states are going to go. The links below it are my analyses of how the state-by-state presidential votes will go, as well as the Senate and gubernatorial races, in states that have them.

I hope you don't mind my personal horn-blowing, and I hope you enjoy it. And I hope you vote for John Kerry!